Case Study: The University of Hong Kong achieves deeper insights into COVID-19 spread and intervention effectiveness with AnyLogic

Simulation of COVID-19 Spread in Hong Kong

The University of Hong Kong needed a way to model the spread of COVID-19 in Hong Kong’s uniquely dense urban environment and identify vulnerable areas, while also testing how interventions might work amid changing political and social conditions. Using AnyLogic, the researchers built a 3D agent-based simulation with mobility and infection models to study transmission patterns, healthcare impact, and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccinations.

AnyLogic’s solution combined secondary data, mobility behavior, and an extended SEIQR model to run five scenarios, from no intervention to work-from-home, mask use, vaccination, and all measures combined. The results showed strong reductions in infections, severe cases, and deaths: total infected cases per 100K fell from 34,881 in the baseline to 1 under the combined scenario, while deaths dropped from 501 to 0. The model also highlighted the highest-risk districts in Hong Kong’s business and commercial centers, and results could be exported to Excel using AnyLogic functions.

The University of Hong Kong

Peter K. Koh

The University of Hong Kong