Case Study: Australian Energy Market Operator reduces solar forecast error with Amperon

Australian Energy Market Operator quantifies 4.1% solar generation drop with Amperon

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) faced a significant challenge in understanding the impact of widespread bushfire smoke on solar farm production during the severe 2019-2020 fire season. This environmental extreme created major forecasting inaccuracies that contributed to financial exposure for the grid operator.

Amperon collaborated with AEMO to analyze the attenuation effect of smoke plumes on 20 large-scale solar farms. The study quantified a mean generation decrease of 4.1%, with a peak reduction of 12% at one facility. This work by Amperon provides a critical baseline for creating long-term, dynamic forecasting capabilities that can integrate the effects of smoke, which is essential for future capital and capacity planning in fire-prone regions.

Australian Energy Market Operator